NationalJournal.com – A 2012 Paradox – Friday, April 29, 2011

NationalJournal.com – A 2012 Paradox – Friday, April 29, 2011.

Despite all the issues that President Obama will be facing as he runs for reelection in 2012. With a slow recovery in the economy, with his Far Left flank angry with him over Health Care Reform, the Recovery Act, Wall Street Reform, Guantanamo Bay, Afghanistan and now Libya. He still faces the same Republican Opposition. With all the issues the President is facing with the Democratic Base and now Independent Voters and a falling Approval Rating. His opponent if the GOP ever selects one, will be someone that the entire GOP Base won’t trust. Whether its the Christian Right, Neo Right or the Tea Party. Each of the leading GOP Presidential Candidates appeals to one or perhaps a couple factions of this very diverse party. Political Diversity is generally good in Party Politics but it can make it difficult to select a Presidential Candidate. And the only Presidential Candidate that at least appealed to the entire GOP Base in the past. Newt Gingrich, is way down in the polls right now. Behind Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. With all the issues that the President faces in his Reelection Campaign. The best thing he has going for him, is his opposition or lack of it.

When then Sen. Barack Obama ran for President in late 2007 and 2008. The best part of Sen. Obama’s appeal was that he was new on the national scene. And he ran a different campaign that was heavily invested in the internet. Which appealed to young voters Generation X and Y. People especially in Gen Y’s case, voting for the first time in their lives. Because they saw a candidate that seemed to be like him. A lot of the voters volunteered for Sen Obama, probably not even knowing most of his positions if any. But they saw a man that didn’t seem like any politician that they saw before. They saw him as internet and technology savvy and frankly cool. Which is what I believed appealed most to these voters. They never saw politics as cool before, they saw it as stiff and serious. Not something that they were not interested in. Barack Obama made politics cool for these voters.

Democratic Socialists flocked to Barack Obama in 2008, because they saw him as one of them. Especially with his Anti War stance and Anti Guantanamo Bay stance. They saw him as a George McGovern Democratic Socialist Presidential Candidate. Or Dennis Kucinich but someone who could not only win the Democratic Nomination but win the Presidency. When he’s not, Barack Obama is essentially a Jack Kennedy/Bill Clinton Liberal Democrat. With out Kennedy or Clinton’s leadership ability. The Far Left flank is the biggest obstacle to President Obama getting reelected. If they leave him and vote for a socialist 3rd Party Candidate. Like a Ralph Nader or Dennis Kucinich. Then the President will lose reelection. But if he brings the Far Left back, then he’ll pick up enough Independent Voters to either sneak by or cruise to reelection. Especially going up against a Far Right republican or a republican that the GOP Base isn’t enthusiastic about.

At the end of the campaign, young voters will swing back to the President. Because they will see him as cool, especially compared with the republican. Plus they tend to be liberal on Social Issues. The question is the Far Left, will they come back, go somewhere else or not show up at all. That will determine whether the President gets reelected or not.

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About Ederik Schneider

Blogger on a whole host of subjects.
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